Christensen C.S. Texit: Is an independent Republic of Texas a reality in North America in the year 2040?

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TEXIT: IS AN INDEPENDENT REPUBLIC OF TEXAS A REALITY

IN NORTH AMERICA IN THE YEAR 2040?

Christensen C.S.

Texas, called the lone star state, is one of the 50 U.S. states. Independence movements have come back into vogue on a global scale. In Europe there are such movements in Catalonia, Flanders, Scotland, Tyrol and in Quebec in Canada. In this paper Texas independence thoughts will be analysed as well as compared to the American history. For the past 20 to 30 years the independence movement in Austin has been active both on the streets and in the Texas Parliament. More than 160 years ago the events that led to the American Civil War (1861-1865) took place in American history. This war began with the secession from the Union by eleven southern states, including Texas. But is it even possible to opt out of the American Union in 2024? And what would an independent Texas look like?

Keywords: Texas, USA, Daniel Miller, Texit, Ted Cruz, Texas Nationalist Movement, Kyle Biedermann, Beauford H. Jester, Republic of Texas, Marjorie Taylor Greene, United States, Independence.

TEXIT: СТАНЕТ ЛИ НЕЗАВИСИМАЯ РЕСПУБЛИКА ТЕХАС

РЕАЛЬНОСТЬЮ В СЕВЕРНОЙ АМЕРИКЕ В 2040 ГОДУ?

Кристенсен К.С.

Техас, именуемый штатом одинокой звезды, – один из 50 штатов США. В глобальном масштабе движения за независимость сегодня снова в моде. В Европе такие движения есть в Каталонии, Фландрии, Шотландии, Тироле, а также в канадском Квебеке. В данной статье анализируются концепции о возможной независимости Техаса в контексте американской истории. Последние 20-30 лет движение за независимость штата активно как на улицах Остина, так и в парламенте Техаса. Более 160 лет назад в американской истории произошли события, приведшие к гражданской войне в США (1861-1865). Эта война началась после выхода из Союза одиннадцати южных штатов, включая Техас. Но возможно ли вообще выйти из состава Американского Союза в 2024 году? И как бы выглядел независимый Техас?

Ключевые слова: Техас, США, Дэниел Миллер, Texit, Тед Круз, Техасское националистическое движение, Кайл Бидерман, Бофорд Х. Джестер, Республика Техас, Марджори Тейлор Грин, Соединенные Штаты, независимость.

Historical background

With the United States torn by divisions over whether slavery could expand into the country's western territories, Texas voted in 1861 to secede from the Union. In the ensuing Civil War up to 750,000 people – more than 2% of all Americans – died. After the defeat of the Confederacy in 1865 Texas was formally readmitted to the Union in 1870 during the Reconstruction era. Many historians believe that when the Confederacy surrendered at Appomattox in 1865, the idea of secession was forever defeated, McDaniel said. The Union’s victory set a precedent that states could not legally secede from [7, p. 63].

Even before Texas formally re-joined the nation, the US Supreme Court declared that secession had never been legal and that even during the rebellion, Texas continued to be a state [17].

In 1947 Texas governor Beauford H. Jester (D) published an article titled “Texans are a race of people”. In this article the governor described what set the Texans apart from other ‘natives’ of other states, and went on to discuss the heritage of the brave men and women who laid foundation. He explained that the people who settled Texas possessed a pioneering spirit. He further touches on the conflict with Mexico, of which Texas at the beginning of the 19th century was actually a part. Texas desire to be annexed with the United States and the independent Texan government in the Republic of Texas that governed from the end of the revolution in 1836 until the process was completed in 1845 [10, p. 180].

Forgotten in the article, however, was that the Texan nation was a multicultural society with British, Frenchmen, Americans, Afro-Americans people, Spaniards, Mexicans and last but not at least the Indians – the original owners of the land. A multicultural society has a more differentiated view of what a state in the American union is and what role and place the state of Texas should have in the union [10, p. 181].

Another reason for Texan deviations in relation to the prevailing attitude in the rest of the American Union is Texas’ relation to slavery in the 1800s; something that put the state on edge with the rest of the union. In 1836 there were about 6,000 slaves living in the Texas territory and in 1860, just before the secession of the Confederacy, there were nearly 185,000 slaves in the local censuses. Actually, Texan economy mainly depends on the cotton industry. Something that distanced the state of Texas from the majority of the union’s other states’ perception of production possibilities and perception of people [11, p. 12].

Texans themselves have been quick on capitalize on the myths and legends. In the early 1960s developers wanted to build a theme Disneyland Park near Dallas – a park with the Texan state’s contested past as a marketing hook with the name Six Flag Over Texas (the flags of Texas (Lone Star), Spain, Mexico, France, the Confederacy and the USA). The flags should mainly tell the story about six nations or territories that have claimed control of Texas. Like the missing of mentioning the important role of multicultural society in the abovementioned article, the flags and their symbols oversimplified the history of the six territories influence in Texas. The rich and complex past with inhabitants representing different cultures, nations, ethnicities and beliefs stands in the background of the Texan folk spirit.

State of Texas

With almost 700,000 square kilometres and 31 million inhabitants Texas is in the top 3 in terms of the most important and powerful states in the union of the United States. Texas is ranked 8th largest economy in the world. The GDP per capita is around $87,000 – comparable to and better than Canada, Australia and South Korea. Around 65% has the English language as their mother tongue whereas 29% has Spanish language as their tongue. Had Texas been a part of the European Union, the state has been one of the leading and influential countries in the region. But Texas is not a part of Europe; this state is a part of North America. However, Air Cargo World, rated Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport as the best cargo airport in the world and the Port of Houston is the largest port in the United States by tonnage, with more than 266 million tons of cargo passing through the port in 2021 [15].

However, there are more dark horses in play. The first is that Texas leads the United States in oil and gas production. The state of Texas accounted of 43% of national crude oil production and 27% of its marketed natural gas production in 2022. The oil reserves of the state are 22,000 million barrels in 2023. Compared to 270,000 million barrels in Saudi Arabia, 169,000 million barrels in Iran and 145,000 million barrels in Iraq this is a very small amount. And the question is how long Texas could survive on the basis of fossil fuel exports? [14].

The second is that Texas has led the United States in export revenues since 2001, grossing more than $440 billion in 2023. The largest export categories in 2023 are 1) oil and gas – $140 billion, 2) petroleum and coal products – $90 billion, 3) chemicals – $58 billion, 4) computer and electronic parts – $53 billion and 5) transportation equipment – $27 billion. Mexico is by far the largest export partner with the state, receiving nearly $130 billion worth of goods in 2023. The next largest export partners are Canada $36 billion and the Netherlands $26 billion [14].

The third is that Texas has the most farms of all United States both in terms of number and acreage. Texas leads the nation in number of cattle, usually exceeding 16 million head. The sprawling 320,000 deeded acres (130,000 ha) La Escalera Ranch, located 20 miles (32 km) south of Fort Stockton, is one of the largest cattle ranches in the South-western United States.

The fourth is that Texas leads nationally in production of sheep and goat products. Texas is king of cotton, leading the nation in cotton production, its leading crop and second-most-valuable farm product. Texas is a leader in cereal crop production. Three counties in the state – Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda – take advantage of water from the lower Colorado River authority to grow rice and are responsible for about 5% of annual U.S. rice production. Texas is also a large producer of watermelons, grapefruits, and cantaloupes [15].

In other words, there would have to be an economic foundation as well as a foundation of export partners worldwide for an eventual independence economy. This, of course, assumes that the trade between Texas and the other forty nine American federal states continues unchallenged and to the same extent after a possible secession.

Voices in the debate

Texas, the troubled child of the United States, is once again in the mouths of those Americans wishing for the collapse of the “Evil Empire”. A plethora of posts have flowed through social media convincing the reader that the moment has arrived – the Lone Star State will regain its status as an independent republic and in doing so, knock the house off the map of the United States. The occasion for the renewed speculation about Texas seceding was the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that the 47-foot barbed-wire fence that Texas erected along the river. Rio Grande to stop the entry of illegal immigrants was illegal and should be removed.

In February 2023 the Georgian Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene sparked a fiery discussion by calling for a national divorce which would see the country separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government. The economist made a subsequent YouGov poll where 23% of the Americans with the proposal, versus 62% who disagreed and 15% who were unsure: “America is in a constitutional crisis. The admin is enabling a full scale border invasion and harboring illegal migrants. The courts are engaging in juridical tyranny. The government is politically weaponized against the people. Soon national divorce may be our only option” [5].

Later on Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote this quotation in an article about the possibility of a national divorce. The Texas Nationalist leader Daniel Miller (R) called the debate helpful for and added: “This is a union of 50 sovereign states. There is no dividing the United States by political affiliation. It’s up to each individual state to determine whether or not they want to continue in this relationship because it is ultimately a voluntary union” [2].

The whole debate over Texan independence comes amid a broader discussion about the unity and indeed viability of the United States in the face of current political tensions.

When asked about Texan independence from the United States in November 2021, senator Ted Cruz (R) pronounced that Texas was not ready to give up on the United States yet and added: “If the Democrats end the filibuster, if they federalize elections, if they fundamentally destroy the country, if they pack the Supreme Court, if they make D.C. a state, if they federalize elections, if they massively expand voter fraud, there may come a point where it’s hopeless” [13].

If all this were realized, Texas would take over NASA, the oil and the US military garrisons on Texan area – according to Ted Cruz.

Other voices interfered in the debate, too. Especially people from the intellectual elite like director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austen, James Henson, and an expert at the University of Texas in Austin, Joshua Blank.

According to James Henson, Texit is an internal Republican politics than a serious project in its own right. He added: “Texas nationalists calling for something akin to a 'Texit' represent some combination of fantasy and symbolic gesture, each divorced from reality… The GOP party apparatus has become the favored dwelling place of extreme and esoteric elements, where such factions are treated much more seriously than they are among the general public” [4].

He added that sometimes the Republican Party attracting attention to ideas and proposals that have little relations to reality.

James Henson is fully supported by Joshua Blank. Joshua Blank emphasizes that a secession process is unlikely to be peaceful and would require a greatly expanded state capacity of the type that would repel lot of Republicans. Texas prides itself on the notion of independence, like most territories and states, however Texas relies on US federal dollars to help provide a relatively low baseline of state services. An eventually withdraw of Texas from the United States would have to significantly increase its revenue through both taxes and fees to make up for the lost federal dollars: “When you start to think about the mechanics of Texas to withdraw from the United States, the ridiculousness of the proposition quickly makes itself apparent” [4].

Joshua Blank emphasized in an interview and added furthermore: “A central element of Republican orthodoxy in Texas is a government model based on low taxes and few services. Filling in the gaping financial and service-providing role of the federal government would require a dramatically different, significantly expanded model of government in Texas...” [4].

A state model that most Texan voters would detest a lot more than an on-going participation in the United States. However, many prominent Republicans are still toying with the idea of a secession process from the United States. They argue for the proposal on the grounds that the United States now would experience a serious constitutional crisis. A crisis that raise question why Texans and similarly minded Americans should remain part of a United States government forsaking their well-being, safety and security in violation of the compact which they entered the union in the 1800s.

Republic of Texas Group and Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM)

There have been efforts to promote Texas secession in the state at least since the 1990s. At this time, Richard Lance McLaren founded the Republic of Texas organization based on his property within the Davis Mountains Resort in Jeff Davis County, becoming the most active and influential secession group at the time. Essentially the organization claimed that the United States annexed Texas illegally and considered it to be held captive. The organization held itself out as an alternative government, based on the principle of very limited powers [3].

McLaren had both supporters and enemies. His supporters generally believed that globalization was a threat to constitutional rights and against Christian principles. Tactics of the group included filing liens against properties, disavowing state and federal authorities, and opening an ‘embassy’. McLaren's legal filings were so numerous that the county clerk gave them a separate cabinet. Members of the Republic of Texas group listed grievances with the U.S. government, such as accusing the government of a corrupt judicial system, paganism, and of creating illegal treaties and illegitimate agencies. Members of the group also stated that the U.S. government had set itself above the people and had exercised its global influences unlawfully against the Constitution [8].

The Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM), headed by the Texas Nationalist leader Daniel Miller (R), evolved from one of the factions of the old Republic of Texas in 2005. However, the organization has disassociated itself from the Republic of Texas and the tactics of Richard Lance McLaren, instead opting for more political rather than confrontational or violent solution. The group has county-level groups in most parts of the state [6].

According to the TNMs website, the objective of the Texas Nationalist Movement is the complete, total and unencumbered political, cultural and economic independence of Texas. Unlike its predecessor, TNM claims to work peaceably with the current political system, and to reject use of force to achieve its goals. TNM is an unincorporated association under the laws of the State of Texas. The organization focuses on political support and advocacy, and education surrounding the issue of secession. It seeks to have the Texas Legislature call for a state-wide referendum on the issue, similar to the Scottish Independence vote of 2014.

In January 2013 members of the TNM rallied at the state capital in Austin to promote the resolution, resulting in one mention of secession by one lawmaker on the opening day of the legislative session. In May 2016 the Texas GOP narrowly rejected bringing a resolution for secession to a floor vote at the 2016 Texas Republican Convention. However, in 2020 the Republican Party of Texas included a plank in its party platform (with 93% approval) stating that the federal government has impaired Texas’ right to self-government, that any legislation infringing upon the Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution “should be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified”, and that Texas retains the right to secede if any future Congress or President change the current political system from a constitutional republic to something else. In June 2022 it voted to include a further secessionist plank in its party platform, calling for the Texas Legislature to approve a referendum on whether Texas should secede from the Union on the 2023 state-wide ballot [3].

In 2015 a representative from the Texas Nationalist Movement attended a conference in Russia. Despite claims that the conference is funded by the Kremlin, public record show that the conference was almost entirely paid for by a charitable fund. In 2024, the TNM declared its support for secessionist groups in Northern Mexico.

Problematic legal issues

The idea that the 28th state could declare independence from the union was tossed around 15 years ago by then Texas Governor Rick Perry. Now jokingly, now seriously, Perry’s successor, current governor Greg Abbott, is also embracing the cause. The legal arguments put forward by Texit supporters are the same. Nationalist politician Daniel Miller also invokes them. And they are: Article 1, Section 10, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 1 of the Texas Constitution, and the 10th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. We’ll look at them separately.

1. Texas can leave the Union because the founding document, the U.S. Constitution, does not specify that it cannot (Article 1, Section 10, Clause 1.3 of the Constitution). No state shall make treaties, alliances, or confederacies; issue letters of prohibition and reprisal; coin money; issue bills of exchange; make any other means of payment than gold and silver coin for the payment of debts; condemn without process of law, pass, ex post facto (retroactive – ed.) laws, or laws violating the obligation of treaties, or grant titles of nobility [16].

2. Under Texas law the state has the right to overthrow its government (and secede from the United States) if it harms the interest of the people (Article 1, Section 2 of the Texas Constitution). All political power is vested in the people, and all free governments are founded on their will and instituted for their benefit. The people of Texas firmly believe in the republican form of government and, subject to that condition, have the inalienable right at any time to alter, reform, or abolish their government in any manner they see fit [16].

3. The Tenth Amendment empowers the states or the people of the states to make decisions not expressly prohibited by the Constitution (the 10th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution). The powers not delegated to the United States or prohibited to the States by the Constitution are reserved to the States or to the people, respectively [16].

Legal and historical precedents that block secession

The question of whether Texas could secede is largely academic. In February, a survey conducted exclusively for “Newsweek” found that in a hypothetical independence referendum, 23% of Texans would vote for the state to become “an independent country”, while 67% would support Texas remaining “a state within the United States” [1]. Joshua Blank, the political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, said he didn’t believe Texas could leave the in a democratic way [4]. History has made clear that there is no plausible scenario in which Texas could peacefully extract itself from the United States, even were that the will of its populous which there is no indication of.

U.S. Constitution and Texas vs. White

There are posts about “the beginning of the end” appeared in which pictures of trucks “blocking the border” were used to illustrate the popular discontent of Texans, but a check by bTV showed that the illustrations were from a completely different event in October 2023. Ideas that the Lone Star State – so called because of its former status as an independent republic – is about to secede from the US are being pushed by Texan politicians.

Texas could absolutely, 100% choose to leave the union, emphasizes Daniel Miller, chairman of the Texas Nationalist Movement, in a video dedicated to Texit. He cites elements of the U.S. Constitution in confirmation. According to Daniel Miller it’s the choice of the people of Texas and the people alone. Miller’s interview with British TV channel GBNews, titled “NOTHING in the U.S. Constitution can prevent Texas from seceding from the Union”, can be viewed here [12, p. 100].

Claim: the U.S. Constitution gives Texas the “absolute legal right” to secede
as is well known the legal system of the United States is based on case law, while ours is based on Roman law. Under case law, a case should be resolved analogously to how it was resolved in another similar case.

Precedent in law – a judgment or decision of a court that is cited in a subsequent dispute as an example or analogy to justify deciding a similar case or legal issue in the same way. Common law and equity, as found in the English and American legal systems, rely heavily on the body of established precedent, although in the original development of the justice system the court theoretically had freedom from precedent. In the late nineteenth century, the principle of stare decisis (Latin: “let the decision stand”) was firmly adopted in England. In the United States the principle of precedent is firm, although higher courts – especially the United States Supreme Court – may review and overrule earlier precedents.

In December 2020 when the Supreme Court refused to hear Texas’s lawsuit in Texas v. Pennsylvania, the chair of the Texas GOP, Allen West, suggested that Texas and other like-minded states could leave the Union. On January 26, 2021 the Texas Independence Referendum Act (HB 1359), a bill to provide for a nonbinding state-wide referendum on secession, was filed by Texas House member Kyle Biedermann. The bill was referred to the State Affairs committee but it was never given a hearing or voted on by the committee before the end of the session.

In June 2022 the Republican Party of Texas released their Report of the Permanent 2022 Platform & Resolutions Committee which urges the legislature to introduce a referendum in 2023 to secede from the United States. In March 2023 state representative Bryan Slaton introduced a bill that would add a referendum on independence to the 2024 US election ballot. In December 2023 the Texas Nationalist Movement claimed that it collected enough signatures under the petition to include a question on secession on the ballot in 2024. It was clarified that even if the proposition passes it is going to be non-binding. Similar secession movements in other states, particularly the states of the Southern United States, are commonly associated with their support of former US President Donald Trump for the 2022 US elections. The Standoff at Eagle Pass has increased support for secession.

In 1869 Texas vs. White was a case argued before the US Supreme Court. The U.S. Supreme Court case in which it was held that the United States is “an indestructible union” from which no state can secede. In 1850 the state of Texas received $10,000,000 in federal government bonds in settlement of boundary claims. In 1861 the state seceded from the Union and joined the Confederacy. In 1862 the confederationist government of the state transferred the bonds to several private individuals in payment for Confederate military supplies. After the Civil War the Reconstruction state government filed a suit in the Supreme Court seeking to recover the bonds, then held by citizens of various states [7, p. 62].

The suit contended that the transfer of the bonds was illegal because the bonds were not signed by the governor, as required by federal law. The defendants contended that, while a state may bring a suit in the Supreme Court, Texas had no such right in this case because it had seceded and, therefore, the federal law was not applicable at the time the bonds were transferred. The Supreme Court held that the intention of the Confederate States to secede meant that they had only temporarily lost privileges of Union membership but had not lost membership itself. Writing for the court, Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase commented that the federal Constitution “in all its provisions looks to an indestructible Union, composed of indestructible States”. Thus, the Supreme Court decreed by law what the Union’s Civil War victory had effected by force, namely, the principle that no state may secede from the Union.

Fight for referendum

The most recent Republican gubernatorial primary took place two years ago when approx. two million voters were cast incumbent State Governor Greg Abbott. A total of approx. 98,000 signatures are therefore needed for a referendum to be considered at all. However, the petition was rejected by the Texas GOP, claiming it had been submitted late and, furthermore, that the vast majority of petition signatures were invalid. Such signatures should include residence address, county of registration, voter registration number and date of birth, and according to the chair of the Texan GOP, Matt Rinaldi, that was not the case.

The backlash from the TNM came immediately. Daniel Miller filed an emergency petition to the Supreme Court with the devise fight for your right to self-government. Furthermore, David Miller argued that Texit is the antidote to, in his eyes, a failing federal system. According to David Miller Texans are paying the price because of the federal government [12, p. 75].

As mentioned above the Texas GOP caused a major stir in 2022 when it incorporated a similar motion calling for an independence referendum into its party platform following a convention vote. In 2023 then Republican Texas State Representative Bryan Slaton introduced legislation calling for a referendum on whether the state “should reassert its status as an independent nation”, though this failed to get out of the State Affairs committee.

Surging tensions between federal and Texan authorities have sparked a renewed debate over whether the state should revert to its status as a fully independent nation, which it held from 1836 until 1845. In January 2024 the Supreme Court ruled federal agents could remove razor wire placed along the Texan-Mexican border by the state's National Guard on the orders of Governor Greg Abbott, in a bid to discourage illegal immigration. In response Abbott said his state was being “invaded” and invoked its constitutional authority to defend and protect itself.

In November 2023 supporters of the movement said they are more energized and optimistic than ever about the prospect of an independent Texas, and pointed to appearances or support from current and former lawmakers including state Senator Bob Hall – as evidence that their movement is far from fringe. The get-together also came as Texit supporters celebrated what they believe is crucial momentum: days before the meeting, the Texas Nationalist Movement announced that it was more than halfway to the roughly 100,000 signatures needed to put a non-binding secession referendum on the Texas Republican primary ballot.

The movement, however, continues to gain traction amid growing political polarization and distrust in American institutions. In June 2024 a long list of Texas GOP figures have either endorsed the movement or flirted with its ideas. That's actually a share of 0.7% of Texas’ total population.

What would an independent Texas look like vs. reality

So, assuming a peacefully seceding Texas, would it be a successful state, or not? There’s reason to believe that it would be very much so. After all, it has in spades everything that made America's economy so great – lots of land, natural resources, deep human capital – Texas universities are among the best in the world, the rule of law, the “protestant work ethic”/”frontier mentality” etc. plus something else that America used to have, which is a political and social consensus which is hostile to regulation. Thanks to this Texas, already a very healthy economy in its own right, could essentially arbitrage America's most egregious regulations to suck economic value away from America. On the other hand, there are other areas where Texas can develop completely new opportunities. Here we will look at five areas where Texas could be in a better shape than they are today in 2024:

1) Immigration. Texas is well-known for being one of the most immigration-friendly states, and to have a strong political consensus in favour of a relaxed stance toward immigration. You could argue that this would be different in an independent Texas. You could also argue that Federal policy has been holding Texas back, and that in an independent Texas a coalition of Latinos and business interests would create a pro-immigration equilibrium. In this case, Texas would become a giant vortex attracting human capital from everywhere. There are millions of people who want to move to the US and who would create tons of economic value there but can't because of byzantine immigration law [9].

2) Changed labour market. With a devalued currency and very little labour regulations, Texas would become a manufacturing haven, with the English language, easy access to the American markets, qualified workers, but lower prices and less regulation than America. The South has already arbitraged a lot of manufacturing away from the North with right-to-work laws, but if you remove federal regulations and add a weak currency, the effect would be multiplied [9].

3) A financial heaven. With no Goldman Sachses and JP Morgans to block any reform, Texas could implement anti-TBTF (Too-big-to-fail) regulations and deregulate everything else. That, plus low taxes, plus great weather, plus a highly-educated English-speaking workforce, creates the first real, serious rival to Wall Street. The behemoths who rely on TBTF legislation would have to stay put, but entrepreneurial financiers would quickly come in droves to set up hedge funds, boutique banks, private equity funds and other investment firms, and create the good kind of financial innovation [9].

4) A technical heaven. A big hurdle would be to have the right kind of patent reform, when Texas courts are known for intellectual property absolutism. But if that hurdle could be overcome, think about it: Austin is already a major start up hub in the US. It has all the right ingredients in terms of human capital, culture, universities, etc. If you add to that a giant wall of money, good patent law and good immigration law, you get something that can be a pretty strong rival to Silicon Valley [9].

5) An energy. As noted, Texas has not just oil but uranium and nuclear technology. A great way for Texas to balance the effect of oil on its economy would be to embark on a French-style program of nuclear plants build-outs. It wouldn’t just be great policy, it would give Texas bragging rights, as the conservative, oil-guzzling state would end up with lower carbon emissions per capita than, say, Massachusetts. Texas is also well-placed to benefit from alternative energies, as it is placed in the US “wind corridor” and has plenty of sunlight. Subsidies probably wouldn't be forthcoming and it is an interesting academic question as to whether renewables can succeed without subsidies--but if it can, a free Texas would be the place. And something tells me that the companies that would arise in that context would be more resilient than their American, Chinese or German competitors. For oil, Texas would probably have to have an independent sovereign wealth fund funded by a resource tax that invests abroad to counterbalance the upward pressure on the Texas dollar by oil demand.

A Texas-less America would give the Democratic Party a lock on the Electoral College and Democratic Party interest groups would be most opposed to the kind of reforms Texas would pursue. This might lead to further deterioration in America and further relative prosperity in Texas.

Conclusion

Let us start with the question: Is an independent Republic of Texas a reality in North America in the year 2040? The answer will probably be no. With the Brexit in mind a Texit seems unlikely. Where the English Parliament really had the chance to make a financial and technical adventure completely unparalleled in history, it ended up with bad management and harassment in the Parliament almost destroying the fundamental structures of the country. Texas finds itself in almost the same situation as Great Britain did around 2017. Another important factor is that popular support is apparently waning. And do Texans care about the subject. With only 210,000 followers on Facebook, there is still a long way to go.

Then there is the legal hurdle. Whether it is even possible for an American state to withdraw from the union will be a legal problem that will take years to resolve. Lawsuits from previous centuries have no validity at all. After all, Texas is still formally part of the American Union and is therefore subject to the federal courts and here in particular the decisions of the US Supreme Court. As the Texas National Movement has already experienced, the political bodies are not interested in a possible secession process either. So, if the movement is to succeed in this, work must be done in a completely different way, intensively, to work on the local political system.

Then there is the economic perspective. Texas, if independence becomes a reality, will be a realistically small state on the North American continent, which will become very dependent on the two neighbour countries USA and Mexico. Texas will become a state the size of which does not exist on the continent. If Texas had been a European state, reality would have looked different. The chance of it going well financially with a possible secession is probably fifty/fifty. The United States may require Texas to pay back money if improvements and expansions to infrastructure or other state investments have taken place recently. Finally, it is also somewhat unclear to what extent Texas’ phenomenal economic situation is dependent on the economy of the American Union.

And then there is probably the most serious problem for the Texas National Movement. Similar to, for example, the Catalan freedom movement, there is no real historical foundation for a possible secession from the mother state. Texas, like Catalonia, is not a historical entity. Both states and their ideas of independence are tied to the fact that the mother state is in a wretched constitution. The argument is Texans are being victimized by mismanagement by the federal government. There is virtually no real suppression of rights or use of one's native language in Texas. It will therefore be a major task to engage 50-60% of the Texan population in the process.

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Data about the author:

Christensen Carsten Sander – Doctor of History (PhD), Independent Researcher (Billund, Denmark).

Сведения об авторе:

Христенсен Карстен Сандер – доктор истории (PhD), независимый исследователь (Биллунд, Дания).

E-mail: arroyoinfancia74@gmail.com.